Jan
18
Good job opportunities for helping with the most important century
5 min read
Feb
28
What does Bing Chat tell us about AI risk?
3 min read
Feb
24
How major governments can help with the most important century
6 min read
Feb
20
What AI companies can do today to help with the most important century
13 min read
Feb
10
Jobs that can help with the most important century
36 min read
Jan
25
Spreading messages to help with the most important century
21 min read
Jan
13
How we could stumble into AI catastrophe
36 min read
Jan
05
Transformative AI issues (not just misalignment): an overview
25 min read
Dec
22
Racing through a minefield: the AI deployment problem
16 min read
Dec
15
High-level hopes for AI alignment
23 min read
Dec
08
AI Safety Seems Hard to Measure
23 min read
Nov
29
Why Would AI "Aim" To Defeat Humanity?
39 min read
Sep
05
Beta Readers are Great
2 min read
Jun
30
The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine
14 min read
Jun
23
Nonprofit Boards are Weird
23 min read
Jun
09
AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined
20 min read
Apr
12
Useful Vices for Wicked Problems
20 min read
Apr
05
Ideal governance (for companies, countries and more)
17 min read
Mar
29
Debating myself on whether “extra lives lived” are as good as “deaths prevented”
18 min read
Mar
18
Cold Takes reader survey - let me know what you want more and less of!
1 min read
Mar
09
Programming note
1 min read
Mar
02
The Wicked Problem Experience
12 min read
Feb
22
Learning By Writing
12 min read
Feb
18
Misc thematic links
7 min read
Feb
15
Defending One-Dimensional Ethics
20 min read
Feb
11
To Match the Greats, Don’t Follow In Their Footsteps
5 min read
Feb
08
"Moral progress" vs. the simple passage of time
4 min read
Feb
03
Investigating musical genius by listening to the Beach Boys a lot
5 min read
Feb
02
Future-proof ethics
19 min read
Jan
27
Cost disease and civilizational decline
6 min read
Jan
25
Reader reactions and update on "Where's Today's Beethoven"
12 min read
Jan
20
Book non-review: The Dawn of Everything
4 min read
Jan
18
Empowerment and Stakeholder Management
8 min read
Jan
14
Assorted cold-ish links
4 min read
Jan
11
Why it matters if "ideas get harder to find"
7 min read
Jan
07
How artistic ideas could get harder to find
11 min read
Jan
06
Seeking beta readers
1 min read
Jan
05
AI alignment research links
8 min read
Jan
04
Where's Today's Beethoven?
25 min read
Dec
28
What counts as death?
7 min read
Dec
23
Utopia links
4 min read
Dec
22
Bet with Zvi about Omicron
5 min read
Dec
21
Bayesian Mindset
29 min read
Dec
17
Cold Links: misc
3 min read
Dec
14
Visualizing Utopia
15 min read
Dec
10
TV shows I wish I could watch: Intergalactic Immigration Wars
2 min read
Dec
07
Why Describing Utopia Goes Badly
14 min read
Dec
06
Candidate for “highest-stakes question of the next several months” (rare hot take)
5 min read
Dec
02
No need to click
2 min read
Nov
30
Did life get better during the pre-industrial era? (Ehhhh)
19 min read
Nov
23
Minimal-trust investigations
16 min read
Nov
19
Tool-assisted speedrunning
6 min read
Nov
18
“Biological anchors” is about bounding, not pinpointing, AI timelines
13 min read
Nov
16
Falling everyday violence, bigger wars and atrocities: how do they net out?
11 min read
Nov
11
Weak point in “most important century”: lock-in
11 min read
Nov
09
Rowing, Steering, Anchoring, Equity, Mutiny
22 min read
Nov
04
Hunter-gatherer happiness
4 min read
Nov
02
Unraveling the evidence about violence among very early humans
23 min read
Oct
29
Cold Links: nonfiction yarns
2 min read
Oct
28
Weak point in “most important century”: full automation
4 min read
Oct
26
Was life better in hunter-gatherer times?
19 min read
Oct
20
Reading books vs. engaging with them
5 min read
Oct
19
Pre-agriculture gender relations seem bad
17 min read
Oct
15
Cold Links: assorted sports longreads
2 min read
Oct
14
If I were a billion years old
2 min read
Oct
12
Has life gotten better?: the post-industrial era
12 min read
Oct
07
“Technological unemployment” AI vs. “most important century” AI: how far apart?
4 min read
Oct
05
Has Life Gotten Better?
9 min read
Oct
01
Gell-Mann Earworms
5 min read
Sep
28
Summary of history (empowerment and well-being lens)
13 min read
Sep
24
Cold Links: assorted fun basketball stuff
1 min read
Sep
23
The Most Important Century (in a nutshell)
9 min read
Sep
21
Why AI alignment could be hard with modern deep learning
18 min read
Sep
17
Asimov's Chronology of Science and Discovery
4 min read
Sep
15
Call to Vigilance
5 min read
Sep
14
How to make the best of the most important century?
16 min read
Sep
09
One Cold Link: “The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective”
6 min read
Sep
08
Medium Lights
2 min read
Sep
07
AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts," Stand
13 min read
Sep
02
Cold Links: Useful
3 min read
Aug
31
Forecasting transformative AI: the "biological anchors" method in a nutshell
21 min read
Aug
27
More on “multiple world-size economies per atom”
8 min read
Aug
26
The gloves are off, the pants are on
4 min read
Aug
24
Are we "trending toward" transformative AI? (How would we know?)
12 min read
Aug
19
Cold Links: heartwarming sports stuff
3 min read
Aug
17
Forecasting transformative AI: what's the burden of proof?
17 min read
Aug
12
A few quick links re: COVID-19/Delta
3 min read
Aug
11
Give Sports a Chance
4 min read
Aug
10
Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?
13 min read
Aug
05
Why talk about 10,000 years from now?
4 min read
Aug
04
The Great Depression, Recession and Stagnation in Full Historical Context
1 min read
Aug
03
This Can't Go On
13 min read
Jul
29
Imagining yourself as a digital person (two sketches)
11 min read
Jul
28
Does X cause Y? An in-depth evidence review
9 min read
Jul
27
Digital People FAQ
23 min read
Jul
27
Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal
19 min read
Jul
23
Gallup website notes
4 min read
Jul
21
Track records for those who have made lots of predictions
3 min read
Jul
20
The Duplicator: Instant Cloning Would Make the World Economy Explode
11 min read
Jul
15
Phil Birnbaum's "bad regression" puzzles
3 min read
Jul
14
Honesty about reading
3 min read
Jul
13
All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild
13 min read
Jul
13
First Post
3 min read